It's time to take a hard look at who deserves to win NFL MVP

We have three Sundays left. Three more Sundays until that IV is ripped out of our arms and we are forced to trudge through the subsequent eight months not being able to start the week with at least 10 NFL games. With the holidays on the way to provide a bit of a distraction from that fate, let’s talk MVP while the NFL has your full and undivided attention.

The last truly competitive MVP race was in 2005. That year Shaun Alexander, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady each received at least 10 of 50 potential votes. Alexander won after a season in which he broke the record for most touchdowns scored by a non-quarterback — which was topped the next season by LaDanian Tomlinson.

Since then, the winner of the MVP usually gets a strong majority of the votes. Even when Adrian Peterson beat out Manning in 2012 — the last non-quarterback to win the award — the margin was 11 votes.

With 11 weeks of play nearly complete there is no clear favorite for the award. If the Dallas Cowboys had at least put up a fight against the Buffalo Bills, Dak Prescott would be the front runner. However, the Cowboys offense appeared to be suffering from couvade syndrome the way that they responded to the defense getting worn down like a child’s favorite Christmas toy.

Tyreek Hill did not play in Week 15 because of injury. Brock Purdy conducted another excellent team offensive performance and Lamar Jackson was dazzling amidst offensive line injuries. At face value, these four players appear to be running step for step with each other at the 350 meter mark of the 400 meter dash.

Since no one has been able to distinguish himself as a clear and obvious MVP, I feel that eight days before Christmas is the best time to take a close look at the case for the award to go to Prescott, Purdy, Hill or Jackson.

Tyreek Hill is the No. 1 game breaker in the NFL

No wide receiver has ever won MVP. Only four wide receivers have won the Heisman trophy and every one of those players have recorded a touchdown that was not the result of a reception. Wide receiver is the most co-dependent position in sports. Old-school centers may not have been able to initiate offense in basketball, but they had the opportunity to score on putbacks and block shots on defense. A No. 1 NFL wide receiver gets the majority of his touches from a ball being hurled into the air that he has to corral without it touching the ground.

In 13 games this season, Hill has been targeted 132 times. He has totaled 97 receptions for 1,542 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Week 14, Hill suffered an ankle injury on Monday Night Football. He played through it, but his lack of explosiveness was evident during the Miami Dolphins’ loss to the Tennessee Titans. They throttled the New York Jets the following Sunday with Hill in street clothes. Maybe that is a reason to again doubt the value of a wide receiver. Or maybe the Dolphins played against a bad football team that they are familiar with since they share a division.

It is far more likely that they would not be 10-4 without Hill’s dominance on offense. He might be the fastest player in the NFL, but he is absolutely the league’s top game breaker. Defending him is not as simple as using a significantly softer coverage than normal. Hill can catch a 12-yard drag and take it 40 yards to the end zone. Teams attempting to defend the Dolphins must account for him before anyone else on the offense. Hill is the most dangerous player on a 10-4 team and that is deserving of MVP consideration.

Brock Purdy keeps rolling along

The San Francisco 49ers lost all of the games that Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams did not play. Samuel missed all of Week 6, 7 and 8. Williams suffered a leg injury during the first quarter of the 49ers’ Week 6 matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

However, Purdy kept the team steady in all three of those losses. The 49ers were a missed 41-yard field goal away from defeating the Browns on the road. He threw some bad interceptions in losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals, but it could also be argued that those four interceptions were his only bad passes in those two games.

Purdy still completed a minimum 70 percent of his passes for 270 yards in both defeats. Going into Week 15, he led the NFL in Total QBR. On Sunday, against the Arizona Cardinals, he completed 64 percent of his passes at 9.7 yards per attempt, and threw for four touchdowns.

Since the 49ers offense got healthy after the bye week, they are undefeated. That includes dominating road wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars — when Trevor Lawrence was not battling through a high-ankle sprain — and the Philadelphia Eagles. Purdy threw for a combined seven touchdowns and no interceptions in those games.

The 49ers have a loaded roster, but they are not perfect. Williams might be the best offensive lineman in the league, but as a whole, the line is nowhere near a top unit. Purdy has the benefit of playing alongside great individual talent, but he still has to make big throws. He is not heaving the ball into double coverage and hoping that someone in the crew of Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will wrestle the football away from the defense. Purdy throws with anticipation and timing, which puts his pass catchers in the best position for success.

Lamar Jackson is the best playmaker in the NFL

Jackson gets that distinction this year largely because pass catchers lined up alongside Patrick Mahomes are not making plays at the same rate as the players on the Ravens. That being said, Mahomes began his NFL career with Hill and Travis Kelce, so Jackson deserves that title for this season.

The Ravens entered the 2023 season with the goal of throwing out their previous offense for a new one. Unfortunately, for them, the injury bug bit them early in the season. With veteran wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman missing time, and also running back J.K. Dobbins’ season-ending injury, the Ravens resorted back to some of the predictable plays of their recent past.

As the rest of the team got healthy, and Zay Flowers has grown into a dependable target, the Ravens have been arguably the best team in the NFL since Week 7. They have one of the best defenses in the league, but without Jackson’s play behind center they would not currently possess the best record in the AFC.

Jackson has a skillset no other quarterback in the league possesses. That may not make him better than the top quarterbacks in the league, but it does keep him in the conversation. There is a reason Cris Collinsworth gushes over Jackson’s play without remorse for three hours. He knows that he is watching a true one-of-a-kind-talent.

Going into Week 15, Jackson had the 10th best Total QBR and did so while throwing only six interceptions. He put up these elite passing statistics while also leading the Ravens in rushing with 644 yards on 5.2 yards per attempt. He played behind a gimpy offensive line, and against the Jaguars’ ferocious pass rush, and still led his team to a 23-7 victory.

Sunday night was one of those Jackson games in which the numbers do not tell the entire story. Yes, he was the Ravens’ top rusher, and his QBR was nearly the same that night as it has been for the season, he didn’t pass for 300 yards, but he held the Jaguars’ defense in the palm of his hand for most of the night.

Dak Prescott had a rough day against the Buffalo Bills, but should still be MVP favorite

Josh Allen did not have to match Prescott throw for throw in Week 15. The Bills’ offense delivered a punishment to the Cowboys’ defense that they likely remembered all too well. Last season, during a home playoff game, the Bengals put the Bills on ice for the entire game. Joe Burrow & Co. moved that Buffalo defense up and down the Highmark Stadium turf at will.

As dominant as the Bengals were that day, the Bills topped that Week 15 against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Cowboys had not lost a game since Week 9. Of their five consecutive victories, only one was by less than 13 points.

The Bills bludgeoned the Cowboys to the tune of 266 yards rushing and an 11 minute advantage in time of possession. Allen did not pass for 100 yards on the day and Dallas still lost, 31-10.

The Cowboys looked bad in the featured 4:25 p.m. EST Sunday matchup and I was sure all week they were going to lose that game. I do not wager on games, but I was so certain a bad day was on the way that I benched one of the 2023 top fantasy football performers — the Cowboys DST. Playing a team on the road that was desperate to stay in the playoff picture had all the makings for a bad Cowboys’ loss immediately following their domination of the Eagles.

With four losses on the season, Prescott will still finish the season at an MVP level even after his 3.9 yards per attempt performance on Sunday. He entered Week 15 No. 2 in total QBR. Prescott was also leading the league in touchdown passes, fifth in passing yards and had thrown only the 24th most interceptions while attempting the sixth-most passes.

Dumping on Prescott is easy because he plays for the Cowboys and is not as dynamic of a player as Mahomes, Jackson, or Allen. That being said, this season he has run his team better than all three of them. If he finishes this season on a high note, he should win MVP.