The NFL’s weekly betting madness was quelled for at least one week as no double-digit underdog was able to earn an outright victory for the first time in weeks. While bettors certainly gave thanks for that over their Thanksgiving dinners, it’s also worth noting that the only reason that didn’t happen was because there were no games with double-digit spreads.
That said, the team with the largest spread of the week, the Cowboys — who were favored by 7.5 points — lost outright to the Raiders in overtime. So, in some ways, this wacky, unpredictable betting season continued.
In Week 13, gamblers will continue to look at the latest odds, trends, results and injuries to inform them of undervalued picks both against the spread and outright. Unfortunately, they are going to have to sort through two double-digit point spreads, as the Buccaneers (-10.5) and Rams (-13) are favored over the Falcons and Jaguars respectively. Those two contenders should win those games, but at this point, take nothing for granted. Nothing.
Most of the rest of the lines this week are tight, as they were in Week 12. That means there should be plenty of good matchups on tap this week. Well, they could also be close, ugly games like the Ravens-Browns and Washington-Seattle prime-time games from last week, but we’ll certainly hope for the former.
The AFC continues to be a logjam while the battle for the NFC Wild Card spots is beginning to heat up, so most of the teams in action are still playing for something. It will also be nice to get the 9-2 Cardinals — and a presumably healthy Kyler Murray — back on the slate. They have been great against the spread this year, and they should have a good chance to cover against the Bears.
NFL odds for Week 13
Below are the latest Week 13 NFL odds, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last updated: Wednesday, Dec. 1.
NFL point spreads Week 13
|Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints||DAL -4.5|
|Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions||MIN -7|
|Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears||ARI -7.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons||TB -10.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans||IND -9.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets||PHI -6.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -3|
|New York Giants at Miami Dolphins||MIA -3|
|Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders||LV -2.5|
|Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers||BAL -3.5|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams||LAR -13|
|San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks||SF -3.5|
|Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs||KC -10|
|New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills||BUF -3|
NFL money lines Week 13
|Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints||NO +172|
|Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions||DET +245|
|Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears||CHI +290|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons||ATL +420|
|Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans||HOU +310|
|Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets||NYJ +220|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals||LAC +146|
|New York Giants at Miami Dolphins||NYG +130|
|Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders||WAS +120|
|Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers||PIT +166|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams||JAX +490|
|San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks||SEA +148|
|Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs||DEN +360|
|New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills||NE +130|
NFL over-unders Week 13
|Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints||47.5|
|Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions||46.5|
|Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears||45.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons||50.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans||46|
|Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets||45.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals||50.5|
|New York Giants at Miami Dolphins||41.5|
|Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders||49.5|
|Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers||44|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams||48|
|San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks||45.5|
|Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs||47.5|
|New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills||43.5|
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Patriots, 49ers surge after victories
NFL best bets for Week 13
Broncos (+10) at Chiefs
Sometimes, you’re going to look at a spread and just instantaneously think and know, “Wow. This is too high.“ This is one of those circumstances.
It’s undeniable that the Chiefs have been playing better in recent weeks. They have won four consecutive games and the team’s defense is playing significantly better than it did in the early stages of the season. Still, they’re not guaranteed to beat the Broncos, a pretty good team, by double digits.
In fact, the Chiefs have often played in close games this season. They have won just three of their seven games by double digits this season. Those came against the Eagles, Washington and the Raiders. All of those games were one-possession games at one point in the second half, so even those contests are a bit closer than the final results indicate.
I know there are some positive trends for the Chiefs in this one. Specifically, they have beaten the Broncos 11 consecutive times, so it seems unlikely that Denver will win this one outright on the road. Still, the Broncos have kept six of those games within 10 points, so even though they’ve lost, they have still been close. That includes the 22-16 loss the Broncos suffered at the end of last season.
Plus, this is, probably, the best iteration of this Broncos team since the 2015 Broncos began the losing streak. Those Broncos were Super Bowl champions. These ones aren’t quite that good, but they have a solid defense, good offensive weapons and a steady quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater.
It also helps that Bridgewater is an elite 42-18-1 against the spread during his career as a starter. That includes a 6-5 mark this season.
This seems like a good spot in which to trust Bridgewater and the Broncos. The Chiefs will be ready for this game after a bye week and should win, but a double-digit victory is far from guaranteed. Professional bettors seem to agree, as Denver has an early-week pro money advantage of 34 percent, per BetQL. So, essentially, people that gamble for a living are putting hefty sums of money on Denver to cover. As such, we’ll advise you to trust them in what should be a tight game.
49ers (-3.5) at Seahawks
OK, it’s officially time to fade the Seahawks. They could bounce back at some point, but after their 17-15 “Monday Night Football” loss against Washington, it’s hard to be optimistic that they will.
The Seahawks just look completely lost on offense. They can’t run the ball without Chris Carson. Russell Wilson is having trouble throwing the ball accurately and was off-target on several passes that killed drives. Worst of all, the team couldn’t hold onto the ball. They generated just 18:20 in time of possession and had five three-and-outs in the second half.
Wilson is still rehabbing a finger injury to his throwing hand, so perhaps he will eventually snap out of his funk. That said, it may be too late to do that. Seattle has dropped to 3-8 and appears to be out of the Wild Card race. They won’t quit on the season, but if their struggles persist, they could reach a boiling point.
The Seahawks would normally look extremely appealing 3.5-point home underdogs, but they haven’t been as strong at home as they once were. They have just one win at Lumen Field, though they have played a couple of close games there against the Saints and Titans. Plus, the 49ers are playing well and figure to be a tough matchup for the Seahawks.
The 49ers rank sixth in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 130.9. Seattle allows the ninth-most rushing yards per game (124.9). The 49ers average 31:04 time of possession this year, good for ninth-best in the NFL. The Seahawks are dead last with a mark of 24:09. That’s nearly three minutes worse than the 31st-ranked Jaguars.
What does this all mean? The 49ers are basically built to beat the Seahawks. They can control the clock and force Wilson to have to beat them with a limited amount of plays. He can do that, as he proved in the Seahawks’ 28-21 win earlier this season, but the 49ers have gotten much healthier since then. Elijah Mitchell didn’t play in that game and Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt during it. With both in tow, the Seahawks will have much more trouble competing with San Francisco.
Taking any team as a 3.5-point road favorite is a risk. That’s part of the reason that both BetQL and sharp bettors see the Seahawks (+3.5) as one of this week’s top picks. (For more top betting picks from BetQL, click here.)
Even despite that, I can’t bring myself to trust Seattle again. This just doesn’t seem like a good matchup for the Seahawks. Stopping this potent San Francisco rushing attack seems too difficult for them and the 49ers’ offense won’t come up empty as often as Washington.
TRADE RUMORS: Why Washington is a good fit for Russell Wilson
Jets (+6.5) vs. Eagles
I know, I know. The Jets are bad. They are coming off a win, but it was against the Texans, so we shouldn’t read into that too much, right?
Well, yes. You’re right. Here’s the thing though: we don’t like the Jets because of how they performed last week. It’s more about a key factor on the Eagles’ side of the ball.
Jalen Hurts is dealing with an ankle injury that he suffered against the Giants. That may impact whether he’s able to play in Week 13, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Eagles’ HC Nick Sirianni said today that QB Jalen Hurts is nursing a sore ankle he suffered during Sunday’s loss to the Giants. It could impact Hurts’ availability for Sunday vs. Jets, with the Eagles on their bye the following week.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 29, 2021
Here’s a look at Hurts’ injury. It doesn’t look major, but it was enough to make him limp.
This is how Jalen Hurts hurt his ankle Sunday
You can see him limping after it, especially leaving the field after the loss
Nick Sirianni says they are hopeful Jalen will be able to play on Sunday but is not sure yet pic.twitter.com/kKvb9yNUZX
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 30, 2021
It’s never fun to trust an injured quarterback, especially one that relies on his mobility and is dealing with an ankle injury. If Hurts does suit up, he could have trouble moving around the pocket and making plays, which is what he does best. Trusting him in that scenario wouldn’t be ideal.
And if Hurts doesn’t play, backup Gardner Minshew would become the starting quarterback for a week. Minshew had some decent performances as a starter with the Jaguars, but we’ve yet to see him do much with the Eagles. He could earn the Eagles a cover, but trusting him would be a risky proposition unless the line dropped below three points.
It sounds crazy, but consider betting the Jets in this spot. It’s a good one for them and maybe Zach Wilson will be able to find success against an Eagles team that blitzes at the second-lowest rate of any team (16.9 percent).
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