The NHL is almost certainly delighted that it’s seen an uptick in scoring the past three seasons (though down a skosh this season from last). It probably should pull a muscle patting itself on the back for the crackdown on goalie equipment leading to lower average save percentages across the Original 32 (.903 so far this season compared to .910 just four years ago). The amount of speed and skill from team to team (except the one I watch) has never been higher.
Which could lead to a complete bonanza of a playoff run in the spring, given how many contenders have big questions in their net.
Looking at possible playoff teams, one could list the following as not having solved their man-in-the-mask issues: Carolina, Toronto, Tampa, Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado, and Edmonton. Your mileage may vary on teams that are getting great work from dumpster diving, such as the Kings. The Rangers are getting good goaltending from their backup, Jonathan Quick, but not so much from their starter, Igor Shesterkin, who just got lit up by the Canes last night. Adin Hill in Vegas leads the league in save percentage, and is coming off a Cup win, and yet he’s never been a full-time starter for a season in the league (and won’t be this year either, as the Knights split starts evenly between him and Logan Thompson). The Canucks are getting the first top-tier work from Thatcher Demko that was always predicted for him, but that isn’t a guarantee to continue through to April.
What that will mean going forward will depend on the various desperation levels of teams and where they think they are on a development level for the goalies they have in-house. Take the Devils, who are outside the playoff window at the moment and were forecast as Cup contenders by a lot of observers, including some truly handsome and charming ones. Their goaltending has been woeful, Akira Schmid not only didn’t take a step forward but took a step back to Utica (going to Utica is always a step back, so I’m told). Even though every other metric has the Devils right where they should be, their goalies combined with Dougie Hamilton’s long-term injury, has them looking at wasting a season that’s supposed to be right in their window.
As always, the Leafs center this because they say so. Joseph Woll will be on the shelf for a few more weeks at least, Ilya Samsonov being so bad that no one wanted to claim him on waivers as he was on his way back to the Marlies (always say “Marlies” in the same voice as Green Jelly’s “Three Little Pigs”), and they’re depending on Martin Jones. The Leafs don’t get to waste a year.
The Canes definitely need a breakthrough this spring after all their limp second-round exits. On the other side of the coin, the Rangers can wait around for Shesterkin to find his form again, especially as they’re in first place anyway partially thanks to Quick beating Jack Sparrow and the Spanish to the Fountain of Youth. Colorado has recent memories of winning a Cup with just a guy in net only two years ago, and may look at their second-line problems more than their goaltending problems.
There also aren’t a lot of solutions to be found on the trade market. John Gibson has been fine in Anaheim behind a bad team, but he still has a terminal case of being John Gibson, which has never meant much come the playoffs. The same sentence can be written about Petr Mrazek in Chicago, and yet you get the feeling some team is going to try on both come March. If the Flames ever wave the white flag, Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been nearly good enough for a team to take on two more years of his $6 million per year contract, even if the Flames will eat some of it. The Kraken are too close to the playoffs to give up, but if they fade and Joey Daccord can remind everyone he recorded the first-ever shutout in Winter Classic history, maybe? Cash in guys who are just “guys” when you can.
All of it should lead to a pretty entertaining spring, with more than a few 5-4s and 6-5s in our future. And some pretty high confidence levels in places like Vegas, Boston, or Dallas that have established goalies.
I’ll just be over here praying someone tumbles right over their skis for Mrazek.
Follow Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social
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