The Jacksonville Jaguars began the 2023 season with a built-in advantage as the only playoff-ready team in a division of bottom-feeders. After last January’s Wild Card comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers, Trevor Lawrence was expected to continue his ascent both in the AFC and up the ranks of elite quarterbacks league-wide. Instead, with the 2024 season on the line, the Jags rolled over and played dead for a half and couldn’t wake up in time, losing 20-28 to the Tennessee Titans in their regular season finale. Of the Week 18 playoff scenarios, Jacksonville’s playoff aspirations were the biggest casualty.
A four-game losing streak that began in December precipitated their fall. However, a soft landing should have awaited them against the Tennessee Titans, who entered with a 6-10 record. Win and they were in. And yet, the Jaguars managed to squander all of those advantages. Jacksonville entered the final week of the regular season with a 90 percent chance of winning the division, according to Pro Football Network’s simulator.
Indianapolis lost their rookie starter to injuries while treating him like a crash dummy and turned to the reigning hipster prince to ignite their offense. Tennessee oscillated between charting a path to the playoffs by refusing to trade Derrick Henry and losing one-score games while planning for their future. The Houston Texans were an organization reeling from Deshaun Watson’s ignominious forced exit amid sexual assault allegations and the front office is run by a neophyte who was promoted from New England Patriots character coach.
Calvin Ridley’s presence after missing the 2022 season serving a year-long suspension related to gambling didn’t provide the boost they expected. Over the course of the season, Ridley proved he’s an adequate target, but not a true number one. The Ridley-Lawrence connection never hit its stride and on the final drive of 2024, one play encapsulated their season.
On their final drive Lawrence launched a deep ball to a wide open Ridley that ricocheted off of his fingertips. Had the ball been thrown half a foot shorter, Ridley would have had enough space to call in a wager on his way to the endzone. Instead, the Jaguars offense stalled out and turned it over on downs in an uninspiring final possession.
That wasn’t on Ridley. In the first half Lawrence and Ridley tag teamed on a 60-yard touchdown, but in a pivotal matchup, Lawrence threw a pair of interceptions, dropped one, could only engineer two touchdown drives, and his final last gasp pass attempt of the season wasn’t even in the vicinity of Evan Engram. In calm waters, Lawrence can steer the ship, but he’s yet to prove he can elevate the Jaguars offense to the next level. Heading into an offseason where he’ll be negotiating a contract extension. The jury is also out on Lawrence’s ceiling.
Lawrence appeared to turn the corner last season but an injury plagued season, turnovers and stiff playmaking ability has defined his third season. Thus far in Lawrence’s career, he’s been a high-stakes gambler. What gets forgotten about his watershed playoff breakthrough against the Chargers is that he also threw four picks. To his credit, Lawrence stuck it out behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The Jaguars best shot to tie Sunday’s contest came on a 4th and goal from the 1-yard-line. His sneak attempt was blown up in the backfield before Lawrence could even get a whiff of the endzone.
Heading into next season, the Jaguars face a different landscape than the one they faced at the onset of 2023. The Houston Texans are the division’s en vogue team and CJ Stroud has separated himself from Lawrence in the next generation of upper echelon quarterbacks tier. Even without his full complement of weapons and his favorite target, Tank Dell, Stroud stood on business down the stretch. Lawrence played well enough to earn an extension, but not enough to match the hype he arrived with as the highest-graded quarterback prospect in a decade.
Once Lawrence’s contract extension hits, Jacksonville’s window to go on spending sprees on the talent around him will dwindle. In a league where circumstances change at light speed, Lawrence is already nearing a crossroads.
Follow DJ Dunson on X: @cerebralsportex
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