It’s crazy to think someone can get to the height of NFL general manager – the position solely responsible for making roster and personnel decisions – all while not knowing football.
In The Athletic’s weekly “Pick Six” column, NFL senior writer Mike Sando broke down some of the reasons the Chiefs have been underperforming and where they stand headed into the postseason. Within the breakdown, Sando dropped an interesting nugget of reporting: One anonymous general manager basically called Kansas City’s 34-year-old tight end washed up.
“It is funny you say that,” the GM said. “I was watching him run down on that Hail Mary (against Green Bay), and I was thinking he might be almost done. I say that understanding he has been productive at times this year. But you know what the first sign of decline for a player like Travis Kelce is? That he is not the same player late in the season. It means his body is not recovering.”
Sando went on to cite Kelce’s career-low 11.2 yards per reception as a sign of decline. He also offered one counter to the GM’s claims from an anonymous offensive coordinator.
“Kelce is fine,” the coach said. “He has never been good lining up and beating a guy press-man on him, but they do such a good job of moving him, motioning him, change-release routes, and a lot of catches come on Mahomes’ scrambles when people lose track of him.”
Frankly, the general manager’s comments are pretty laughable. Does Kelce look like he’s still at the peak of his powers? No, and I can’t name a tight end who still served as an elite offensive weapon at 34.
To call Kelce “almost done,” however, is just denying reality. Want volume stats? Kelce leads all tight ends in receiving yards (896) and is tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (5, sitting behind a three-way tie at 6). Want efficiency metrics? Kelce’s “career-low” 11.2 yards per target are still fifth in the league among tight ends, while his 8.7 yards per target ranks third. According to 33rd Team’s The Edge, Kelce’s 2.50 yards per route run is tied with George Kittle for best in the league among tight ends with at least 50 routes run. Want advanced metrics? Kelce is second among tight ends (min. 30 targets) in receiving DYAR and fourth in DVOA. He is also PFF’s second-highest-graded tight end on the season.
Even by Kelce’s historically high standards, he’s having a fine year. Kelce is 104 yards away from his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season. His 77.7 percent catch rate is the highest of his career. He’s on pace to set a new career benchmark in total receptions. On one of the biggest workloads by volume of his career, Kelce is posting the third-highest success rate of his career.
Again, there are signs of decline. According to ProFootballReference’s advanced statistics, Kelce’s 7.6 average depth of target would be the third-lowest since 2018 (as far back as PFR’s advanced statistics track). His 4.7 yards after catch per reception is second-lowest over the last six years.
Part of that – especially the ability to separate after catch – can be tied to age. But a huge part of that is also the Chiefs’ overall situation. Mahomes’ 6.9 intended air yards per attempt is the lowest mark of his career. Kansas City leads the league in dropped passes, most of those coming from an inexperienced (also not very good) receiving corps. The four-time All-Pro tight end is the only receiving weapon Kansas City has. That means he gets tougher coverage assignments, which in turn means passing Kelce the ball is going to get a little tougher.
One thing the anonymous GM got right, though, is that Kelce probably won’t age as gracefully as other tight ends. The natural life cycle of a modern tight end usually requires them to transition to blocking-centric roles in their twilight years. Kelce is notoriously not a good blocker. Kansas City seldom uses him to block past an outside chip. If he has to become a down-to-down blocking tight end in heavy personnel packages late into his career, he probably won’t last that long.
That being said, Kelce is still playing at an elite level. He has regressed, yes. That regression, at least on a personal level, just comes down from “greatest offensive tight end in NFL history” to “a top-three tight end in the league.” Kelce is an extremely healthy player, having missed two regular season games since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. He still puts up numbers that 90 percent of the league wishes it could get out of their tight ends.
It’s okay to say the Chiefs are having a bad year offensively. It’s not okay to lie.
Original source here
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